Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://doi.org/10.3389/ijph.2022.1604854
Title: A Data-Driven Analysis of the Economic Cost of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions: A Cross-Country Comparison of Kenya, Singapore, and Thailand
Authors: Briones, Jamaica 
Wang, Yi
Prawjaeng, Juthamas
Wee, Hwee Lin 
Kairu, Angela
Orangi, Stacey
Barasa, Edwine
Teerawattananon, Yot 
Issue Date: 28-Jun-2022
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
Citation: Briones, Jamaica, Wang, Yi, Prawjaeng, Juthamas, Wee, Hwee Lin, Kairu, Angela, Orangi, Stacey, Barasa, Edwine, Teerawattananon, Yot (2022-06-28). A Data-Driven Analysis of the Economic Cost of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions: A Cross-Country Comparison of Kenya, Singapore, and Thailand. International Journal of Public Health 67. ScholarBank@NUS Repository. https://doi.org/10.3389/ijph.2022.1604854
Abstract: Objective: To estimate the economic impact of border closure and social distancing by estimating the decline of gross domestic product (GDP) in Kenya, Singapore and Thailand.Methods: We analysed secondary data retrospectively. To calculate impact of NPIs on GDP, the relationship between GDP and stock market index was examined using ordinary least squares (OLS). Then, autoregressive and moving averages (ARMA) model was used to examine the impact of NPI on stock market index. The change in GDP due to NPIs was derived by multiplying coefficients of OLS and ARMA models.Results: An increase in stock market index correlated with an increase in GDP, while both social distancing and border closure negatively correlated with stock market index. Implementation of NPIs correlated with the decline in GDP. Thai border closure had a greater decline in GDP than social distancing; Kenya exhibited the same trends; Singapore had the opposite trend.Conclusion: We quantified the magnitude of economic impact of NPIs in terms of GDP decline by linking stock market index and GDP. This approach may be applicable in other settings.
Source Title: International Journal of Public Health
URI: https://scholarbank.nus.edu.sg/handle/10635/228354
ISSN: 16618564
DOI: 10.3389/ijph.2022.1604854
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