Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2020.1864458
Title: Fortunes of Dragons: Cohort size effects on life outcomes
Authors: Agarwal Sumit 
QIAN WENLAN 
SING TIEN FOO 
TAN POH LIN, JENNIFER 
Keywords: Social Sciences
Demography
cohort size
cohort effect
fertility
education
income
consumption
superstition
externalities
Chinese
Singapore
Issue Date: 27-Jan-2021
Publisher: ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
Citation: Agarwal Sumit, QIAN WENLAN, SING TIEN FOO, TAN POH LIN, JENNIFER (2021-01-27). Fortunes of Dragons: Cohort size effects on life outcomes. POPULATION STUDIES-A JOURNAL OF DEMOGRAPHY 75 (2) : 191-207. ScholarBank@NUS Repository. https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2020.1864458
Abstract: This paper examines the long-term effects of birth cohort size on life outcomes. Using administrative data from Singapore, we study the outcomes of large birth cohorts created by the Chinese superstitious practice of zodiac birth timing, where parents prefer to give birth in the year of the Dragon. This practice is followed exclusively by the Chinese majority, with no similar patterns detected among non-Chinese minorities, allowing us to differentiate cohort size effects from confounding year-of-birth effects. Despite government efforts to increase public educational resources for these cohorts, Chinese Dragons earn lower incomes and are less likely to gain admission to national universities. There is also evidence of negative externalities on non-practising populations who happen to enter the labour market at the same time as Chinese Dragons. Our analysis suggests that the adverse life outcomes are not due to selection, but rather reflect the aggregate resource implications of birth cohort size. Supplementary material is available for this article at: https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2020.1864458.
Source Title: POPULATION STUDIES-A JOURNAL OF DEMOGRAPHY
URI: https://scholarbank.nus.edu.sg/handle/10635/193511
ISSN: 0032-4728
1477-4747
DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2020.1864458
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