Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://doi.org/10.1097/EDE.0000000000001257
Title: Effectiveness of Containment Measures Against COVID-19 in Singapore Implications for Other National Containment Efforts
Authors: Pung, Rachael
COOK,ALEXANDER RICHARD 
Chiew, Calvin J
Clapham, Hannah E
SUN YINXIAOHE 
Li, Zongbin
DICKENS, BORAME SUE LEE 
MA SZE LOK STEFAN 
Mak, Kenneth
TAN CHORH CHUAN 
Heng, Derrick
Chen I-Cheng Mark 
VERNON LEE JIAN MING 
Keywords: Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Bayesian
COVID-19
Reproduction number
Modeling
Outbreak containment
TRANSMISSION
Issue Date: 1-Jan-2021
Publisher: LIPPINCOTT WILLIAMS & WILKINS
Citation: Pung, Rachael, COOK,ALEXANDER RICHARD, Chiew, Calvin J, Clapham, Hannah E, SUN YINXIAOHE, Li, Zongbin, DICKENS, BORAME SUE LEE, MA SZE LOK STEFAN, Mak, Kenneth, TAN CHORH CHUAN, Heng, Derrick, Chen I-Cheng Mark, VERNON LEE JIAN MING (2021-01-01). Effectiveness of Containment Measures Against COVID-19 in Singapore Implications for Other National Containment Efforts. EPIDEMIOLOGY 32 (1) : 79-86. ScholarBank@NUS Repository. https://doi.org/10.1097/EDE.0000000000001257
Abstract: Background: We hypothesize that comprehensive surveillance of COVID-19 in Singapore has facilitated early case detection and prompt contact tracing and, with community-based measures, contained spread. We assessed the effectiveness of containment measures by estimating transmissibility (effective reproduction number,) over the course of the outbreak. Methods: We used a Bayesian data augmentation framework to allocate infectors to infectees with no known infectors and determine serial interval distribution parameters via Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. We fitted a smoothing spline to the number of secondary cases generated by each infector by respective onset dates to estimate and evaluated increase in mean number of secondary cases per individual for each day's delay in starting isolation or quarantine. Results: As of April 1, 2020, 1000 COVID-19 cases were reported in Singapore. We estimated a mean serial interval of 4.6 days [95% credible interval (CI) = 4.2, 5.1] with a SD of 3.5 days (95% CI = 3.1, 4.0). The posterior mean was below one for most of the time, peaking at 1.1 (95% CI = 1.0, 1.3) on week 9 of 2020 due to a spreading event in one of the clusters. Eight hundred twenty-seven (82.7%) of cases infected less than one person on average. Over an interval of 7 days, the incremental mean number of cases generated per individual for each day's delay in starting isolation or quarantine was 0.03 cases (95% CI = 0.02, 0.05). Conclusions: We estimate that robust surveillance, active case detection, prompt contact tracing, and quarantine of close contacts kept below one.
Source Title: EPIDEMIOLOGY
URI: https://scholarbank.nus.edu.sg/handle/10635/190901
ISSN: 1044-3983
1531-5487
DOI: 10.1097/EDE.0000000000001257
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