Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://doi.org/10.1097/EDE.0000000000001257
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dc.titleEffectiveness of Containment Measures Against COVID-19 in Singapore Implications for Other National Containment Efforts
dc.contributor.authorPung, Rachael
dc.contributor.authorCOOK,ALEXANDER RICHARD
dc.contributor.authorChiew, Calvin J
dc.contributor.authorClapham, Hannah E
dc.contributor.authorSUN YINXIAOHE
dc.contributor.authorLi, Zongbin
dc.contributor.authorDICKENS, BORAME SUE LEE
dc.contributor.authorMA SZE LOK STEFAN
dc.contributor.authorMak, Kenneth
dc.contributor.authorTAN CHORH CHUAN
dc.contributor.authorHeng, Derrick
dc.contributor.authorChen I-Cheng Mark
dc.contributor.authorVERNON LEE JIAN MING
dc.date.accessioned2021-05-06T01:56:20Z
dc.date.available2021-05-06T01:56:20Z
dc.date.issued2021-01-01
dc.identifier.citationPung, Rachael, COOK,ALEXANDER RICHARD, Chiew, Calvin J, Clapham, Hannah E, SUN YINXIAOHE, Li, Zongbin, DICKENS, BORAME SUE LEE, MA SZE LOK STEFAN, Mak, Kenneth, TAN CHORH CHUAN, Heng, Derrick, Chen I-Cheng Mark, VERNON LEE JIAN MING (2021-01-01). Effectiveness of Containment Measures Against COVID-19 in Singapore Implications for Other National Containment Efforts. EPIDEMIOLOGY 32 (1) : 79-86. ScholarBank@NUS Repository. https://doi.org/10.1097/EDE.0000000000001257
dc.identifier.issn1044-3983
dc.identifier.issn1531-5487
dc.identifier.urihttps://scholarbank.nus.edu.sg/handle/10635/190901
dc.description.abstractBackground: We hypothesize that comprehensive surveillance of COVID-19 in Singapore has facilitated early case detection and prompt contact tracing and, with community-based measures, contained spread. We assessed the effectiveness of containment measures by estimating transmissibility (effective reproduction number,) over the course of the outbreak. Methods: We used a Bayesian data augmentation framework to allocate infectors to infectees with no known infectors and determine serial interval distribution parameters via Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. We fitted a smoothing spline to the number of secondary cases generated by each infector by respective onset dates to estimate and evaluated increase in mean number of secondary cases per individual for each day's delay in starting isolation or quarantine. Results: As of April 1, 2020, 1000 COVID-19 cases were reported in Singapore. We estimated a mean serial interval of 4.6 days [95% credible interval (CI) = 4.2, 5.1] with a SD of 3.5 days (95% CI = 3.1, 4.0). The posterior mean was below one for most of the time, peaking at 1.1 (95% CI = 1.0, 1.3) on week 9 of 2020 due to a spreading event in one of the clusters. Eight hundred twenty-seven (82.7%) of cases infected less than one person on average. Over an interval of 7 days, the incremental mean number of cases generated per individual for each day's delay in starting isolation or quarantine was 0.03 cases (95% CI = 0.02, 0.05). Conclusions: We estimate that robust surveillance, active case detection, prompt contact tracing, and quarantine of close contacts kept below one.
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherLIPPINCOTT WILLIAMS & WILKINS
dc.sourceElements
dc.subjectScience & Technology
dc.subjectLife Sciences & Biomedicine
dc.subjectPublic, Environmental & Occupational Health
dc.subjectBayesian
dc.subjectCOVID-19
dc.subjectReproduction number
dc.subjectModeling
dc.subjectOutbreak containment
dc.subjectTRANSMISSION
dc.typeArticle
dc.date.updated2021-05-05T09:15:26Z
dc.contributor.departmentOFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT
dc.contributor.departmentSAW SWEE HOCK SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH
dc.description.doi10.1097/EDE.0000000000001257
dc.description.sourcetitleEPIDEMIOLOGY
dc.description.volume32
dc.description.issue1
dc.description.page79-86
dc.published.statePublished
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