Neighborhood Racial Transitions, Household Residential Mobility, and Segregation Trends in the U.S.

Abstract

This is the first study of temporal segregation dynamics based on the full analysis of household residential mobility, including non-moves, intra-, and inter-neighborhood moves in the US over the last four decades (1971-2009). Analysis results demonstrate the decreases in both white flight and white avoidance over time. Whites stayed shorter in black-white neighborhoods than in predominantly white neighborhoods until 1990, but this was no more significant during the recent two decades. The tendency that whites are less likely to move to racially homogenous neighborhoods than moving within or across racially mixed neighborhoods was significant only after 1990. These two results well explain aggregate-level segregation trends that black-white neighborhoods have experienced the most significant drop in the probability of transitioning into racially homogenous neighborhoods and that the share of racially mixed neighborhoods among all has significantly increased over time. Analysis results further suggest that increasing racial diversity and the reduction in racial segregation in metropolitan areas have likely contributed to changes in whites’ residential mobility.