Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://doi.org/10.1038/srep18610
Title: Risk Distribution of Human Infections with Avian Influenza H7N9 and H5N1 virus in China
Authors: Li, X.-L
Yang, Y
Sun, Y
Chen, W.-J
Sun, R.-X
Liu, K
Ma, M.-J
Liang, S
Yao, H.-W
Gray, G.C 
Fang, L.-Q
Cao, W.-C
Keywords: animal
avian influenza
biological model
bird
China
geography
human
incidence
Influenza A virus (H5N1)
Influenza A virus (H7N9)
Influenza, Human
physiology
probability
regression analysis
risk factor
virology
Animals
Birds
China
Geography
Humans
Incidence
Influenza A Virus, H5N1 Subtype
Influenza A Virus, H7N9 Subtype
Influenza in Birds
Influenza, Human
Models, Biological
Probability
Regression Analysis
Risk Factors
Issue Date: 2015
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
Citation: Li, X.-L, Yang, Y, Sun, Y, Chen, W.-J, Sun, R.-X, Liu, K, Ma, M.-J, Liang, S, Yao, H.-W, Gray, G.C, Fang, L.-Q, Cao, W.-C (2015). Risk Distribution of Human Infections with Avian Influenza H7N9 and H5N1 virus in China. Scientific Reports 5 : 18610. ScholarBank@NUS Repository. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep18610
Rights: Attribution 4.0 International
Abstract: It has been documented that the epidemiological characteristics of human infections with H7N9 differ significantly between H5N1. However, potential factors that may explain the different spatial distributions remain unexplored. We use boosted regression tree (BRT) models to explore the association of agro-ecological, environmental and meteorological variables with the occurrence of human cases of H7N9 and H5N1, and map the probabilities of occurrence of human cases. Live poultry markets, density of human, coverage of built-up land, relative humidity and precipitation were significant predictors for both. In addition, density of poultry, coverage of shrub and temperature played important roles for human H7N9 infection, whereas human H5N1 infection was associated with coverage of forest and water body. Based on the risks and distribution of ecological characteristics which may facilitate the circulation of the two viruses, we found Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta, along with a few spots on the southeast coastline, to be the high risk areas for H7N9 and H5N1. Additional, H5N1 risk spots were identified in eastern Sichuan and southern Yunnan Provinces. Surveillance of the two viruses needs to be enhanced in these high risk areas to reduce the risk of future epidemics of avian influenza in China.
Source Title: Scientific Reports
URI: https://scholarbank.nus.edu.sg/handle/10635/180399
ISSN: 2045-2322
DOI: 10.1038/srep18610
Rights: Attribution 4.0 International
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