A comprehensive risk score for effective risk stratification and screening of nasopharyngeal carcinoma
Zhou, Xiang Cao, Su-Mei Cai, Yong-Lin Zhang, Xiao Zhang, Shanshan Feng, Guo-Fei Chen, Yufeng Feng, Qi-Sheng Chen, Yijun Chang, Ellen T.
Zhou, Xiang
Cao, Su-Mei
Cai, Yong-Lin
Zhang, Xiao
Zhang, Shanshan
Feng, Guo-Fei
Chen, Yufeng
Feng, Qi-Sheng
Chen, Yijun
Chang, Ellen T.
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Abstract
Using Epstein-Barr virus (EBV)-based markers to screen populations at high risk for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is an attractive preventive approach. Here, we develop a comprehensive risk score (CRS) that combines risk effects of EBV and human genetics for NPC risk stratification and validate this CRS within an independent, population-based dataset. Comparing the top decile with the bottom quintile of CRSs, the odds ratio of developing NPC is 21 (95% confidence interval: 12–37) in the validation dataset. When combining the top quintile of CRS with EBV serology tests currently used for NPC screening in southern China, the positive prediction value of screening increases from 4.70% (serology test alone) to 43.24% (CRS plus serology test). By identifying individuals at a monogenic level of NPC risk, this CRS approach provides opportunities for personalized risk prediction and population screening in endemic areas for the early diagnosis and secondary prevention of NPC. © 2021, The Author(s).
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Source Title
Nature Communications
Publisher
Nature Research
Series/Report No.
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Rights
Attribution 4.0 International
Date
2021-08-31
DOI
10.1038/s41467-021-25402-z
Type
Article