Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
Title: Risk scorecard to minimize impact of COVID-19 when reopening
Authors: Lim, Shin B.
Pung, Rachael
Tan, Kellie
Lang, Jocelyn H. S.
Yong, Dominique Z. X.
Teh, Shi-Hua
Quah, Elizabeth
Sun, Yinxiaohe 
Ma, Stefan 
Lee, Vernon J. M. 
Keywords: contact tracing
imported cases
infectious diseases
social distancing
traveller testing
Issue Date: 23-Jul-2021
Publisher: NLM (Medline)
Citation: Lim, Shin B., Pung, Rachael, Tan, Kellie, Lang, Jocelyn H. S., Yong, Dominique Z. X., Teh, Shi-Hua, Quah, Elizabeth, Sun, Yinxiaohe, Ma, Stefan, Lee, Vernon J. M. (2021-07-23). Risk scorecard to minimize impact of COVID-19 when reopening. Journal of travel medicine 28 (7). ScholarBank@NUS Repository.
Rights: Attribution 4.0 International
Abstract: BACKGROUND: We present a novel approach for exiting coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) lockdowns using a 'risk scorecard' to prioritize activities to resume whilst allowing safe reopening. METHODS: We modelled cases generated in the community/week, incorporating parameters for social distancing, contact tracing and imported cases. We set thresholds for cases and analysed the effect of varying parameters. An online tool to facilitate country-specific use including the modification of parameters ( enables visualization of effects of parameter changes and trade-offs. Local outbreak investigation data from Singapore illustrate this. RESULTS: Setting a threshold of 0.9 mean number of secondary cases arising from a case to keep R?1. CONCLUSIONS: Countries can utilize a 'risk scorecard' to balance relaxations for travel and domestic activity depending on factors that reduce disease impact, including hospital/ICU capacity, contact tracing, quarantine and vaccination. The tool enabled visualization of the combinations of imported cases and activity levels on the case numbers and the trade-offs required. For vaccination, a reduction factor should be applied both for likelihood of an infected case being present and a close contact getting infected. © International Society of Travel Medicine 2021. Published by Oxford University Press.
Source Title: Journal of travel medicine
ISSN: 1708-8305
DOI: 10.1093/jtm/taab113
Rights: Attribution 4.0 International
Appears in Collections:Elements
Staff Publications

Show full item record
Files in This Item:
File Description SizeFormatAccess SettingsVersion 
10_1093_jtm_taab113.pdf816.35 kBAdobe PDF



Google ScholarTM



This item is licensed under a Creative Commons License Creative Commons