Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2021.0112
Title: A data driven agent-based model that recommends non-pharmaceutical interventions to suppress Coronavirus disease 2019 resurgence in megacities
Authors: Yin, Ling
Zhang, Hao
Li, Yuan
Liu, Kang
Chen, Tianmu
Luo, Wei 
Lai, Shengjie
Li, Ye
Tang, Xiujuan
Ning, Li
Feng, Shengzhong
Wei, Yanjie
Zhao, Zhiyuan
Wen, Ying
Mao, Liang
Mei, Shujiang
Keywords: Science & Technology
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Science & Technology - Other Topics
COVID-19
agent-based model
contact tracing
facemask
testing
mobile phone data
HUMAN MOBILITY
TRANSMISSION
IMPACT
CHINA
Issue Date: 25-Aug-2021
Publisher: ROYAL SOC
Citation: Yin, Ling, Zhang, Hao, Li, Yuan, Liu, Kang, Chen, Tianmu, Luo, Wei, Lai, Shengjie, Li, Ye, Tang, Xiujuan, Ning, Li, Feng, Shengzhong, Wei, Yanjie, Zhao, Zhiyuan, Wen, Ying, Mao, Liang, Mei, Shujiang (2021-08-25). A data driven agent-based model that recommends non-pharmaceutical interventions to suppress Coronavirus disease 2019 resurgence in megacities. JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY INTERFACE 18 (181). ScholarBank@NUS Repository. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2021.0112
Abstract: Before herd immunity against Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is achieved by mass vaccination, science-based guidelines for non-pharmaceutical interventions are urgently needed to reopen megacities. This study integrated massive mobile phone tracking records, census data and building characteristics into a spatially explicit agent-based model to simulate COVID-19 spread among 11.2 million individuals living in Shenzhen City, China. After validation by local epidemiological observations, the model was used to assess the probability of COVID-19 resurgence if sporadic cases occurred in a fully reopened city. Combined scenarios of three critical non-pharmaceutical interventions (contact tracing, mask wearing and prompt testing) were assessed at various levels of public compliance. Our results show a greater than 50% chance of disease resurgence if the city reopened without contact tracing. However, tracing household contacts, in combination with mandatory mask use and prompt testing, could suppress the probability of resurgence under 5% within four weeks. If household contact tracing could be expanded to work/class group members, the COVID resurgence could be avoided if 80% of the population wear facemasks and 40% comply with prompt testing. Our assessment, including modelling for different scenarios, helps public health practitioners tailor interventions within Shenzhen City and other world megacities under a variety of suppression timelines, risk tolerance, healthcare capacity and public compliance.
Source Title: JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY INTERFACE
URI: https://scholarbank.nus.edu.sg/handle/10635/229360
ISSN: 17425689
17425662
DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2021.0112
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