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Title: From SARS to COVID-19: The evolving role of China-ASEAN production network
Authors: Ammu George 
Changtai Li 
Jing Zhi Lim 
Xie Taojun 
Keywords: COVID-19
Production network
Susceptible-infected-recovered model
Issue Date: 1-Aug-2021
Citation: Ammu George, Changtai Li, Jing Zhi Lim, Xie Taojun (2021-08-01). From SARS to COVID-19: The evolving role of China-ASEAN production network. Economic Modelling 101 : 105510. ScholarBank@NUS Repository.
Abstract: Two decades after the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak, Asia is confronted with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) that has significantly affected the region's economy. In a novel general equilibrium model, we introduce epidemiological dynamics to the production network between China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). In this model, agents' risk-averse behavior during pandemics leads to shifting demands across economic sectors. We calibrate the model with the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) inter-country input-output tables for pre-SARS and pre-COVID-19 periods and control for disease dynamics across years. Findings show that in the absence of policy interventions, China's greater significance in global value chains is associated with substantial economic impacts, within China and the ASEAN region. Our sensitivity analyses further show that China's containment efforts reduce the spillover effects on ASEAN.
Source Title: Economic Modelling
ISSN: 0264-9993
DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2021.105510
Appears in Collections:Staff Publications

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