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Title: Bayesian inference on the number of recurrent events: A joint model of recurrence and survival
Authors: Boom, Willem van den
Tallarita, Marta
Keywords: Accelerated failure time model
colorectal cancer
Dirichlet process mixtures
hospital readmission cost burden
number of recurrent events
reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo
Issue Date: 14-May-2020
Publisher: SAGE Publications
Citation: Boom, Willem van den, DE IORIO, MARIA, Tallarita, Marta (2020-05-14). Bayesian inference on the number of recurrent events: A joint model of recurrence and survival. Statistical Methods in Medical Research. ScholarBank@NUS Repository.
Abstract: The number of recurrent events before a terminating event is often of interest. For instance, death terminates an individual's process of rehospitalizations and the number of rehospitalizations is an important indicator of economic cost. We propose a model in which the number of recurrences before termination is a random variable of interest, enabling inference and prediction on it. Then, conditionally on this number, we specify a joint distribution for recurrence and survival. This novel conditional approach induces dependence between recurrence and survival, which is often present, for instance due to frailty that affects both. Additional dependence between recurrence and survival is introduced by the specification of a joint distribution on their respective frailty terms. Moreover, through the introduction of an autoregressive model, our approach is able to capture the temporal dependence in the recurrent events trajectory. A non-parametric random effects distribution for the frailty terms accommodates population heterogeneity and allows for data-driven clustering of the subjects. A tailored Gibbs sampler involving reversible jump and slice sampling steps implements posterior inference. We illustrate our model on colorectal cancer data, compare its performance with existing approaches and provide appropriate inference on the number of recurrent events.
Source Title: Statistical Methods in Medical Research
ISSN: 0962-2802
DOI: 10.1177/09622802211048059
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