Scenario archetypes of the futures of capitalism: The conflict between the psychological attachment to capitalism and the prospect of its dissolution

Abstract

Capitalism contributes to satisfy innate human instincts of selfishness, making humans psychologically attached to capitalistic practices. In contrast, economic, social and technological trends are pointing towards capitalism’s dissolution. A global ideological conflict is emerging from the clash between these contrasting forces. To analyze the possible ways this conflict might unfold in the future, four scenario archetypes of the future of capitalism are put forward. In each scenario, the ideological conflict between the psychological attachment to capitalism and the prospect of its dissolution will be manifested to different extents and have different outcomes. To let scenarios vividly come to life, four short metaphorical science fiction episodes enrich each scenario's description. A preferable scenario (Transformation) is then identified for its lower level of ideological conflict. In the preferable scenario, public policy specialists will activate human tendency for respect and reciprocity using scientific knowledge on the way human nature responds to nudges and incentives, and a shift in human understanding towards collaborative economic values will be enacted. Preliminary policy guidelines to achieve this scenario are finally discussed.