Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://scholarbank.nus.edu.sg/handle/10635/105041
Title: bayesTFR: An R package for probabilistic projections of the total fertility rate
Authors: Ševčíková, H.
Alkema, L. 
Raftery, A.E.
Keywords: Autoregressive model
Bayesian hierarchical model
Fertility projection methodology
Markov chain monte carlo
R
United nations
World population prospects
Issue Date: Jul-2011
Citation: Ševčíková, H.,Alkema, L.,Raftery, A.E. (2011-07). bayesTFR: An R package for probabilistic projections of the total fertility rate. Journal of Statistical Software 43 (1) : 1-29. ScholarBank@NUS Repository.
Abstract: The bayesTFR package for R provides a set of functions to produce probabilistic projections of the total fertility rate (TFR) for all countries. In the model, a random walk with drift is used to project the TFR during the fertility transition, using a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the parameters of the drift term. The TFR is modeled with a first order autoregressive process during the post-transition phase. The computationally intensive part of the projection model is a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for estimating the parameters of the drift term. This article summarizes the projection model and describes the basic steps to generate probabilistic projections, as well as other functionalities such as projecting aggregate outcomes and dealing with missing values.
Source Title: Journal of Statistical Software
URI: http://scholarbank.nus.edu.sg/handle/10635/105041
ISSN: 15487660
Appears in Collections:Staff Publications

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