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Title: Modelling port water collision risk using traffic conflicts
Authors: Debnath, A.K. 
Chin, H.C. 
Haque, M.M. 
Keywords: Binomial logistic model
Navigational collision risk
Port fairways
Traffic conflicts
Issue Date: Oct-2011
Citation: Debnath, A.K., Chin, H.C., Haque, M.M. (2011-10). Modelling port water collision risk using traffic conflicts. Journal of Navigation 64 (4) : 645-655. ScholarBank@NUS Repository.
Abstract: Navigational collisions are one of the major safety concerns for many seaports. Despite the extent of work recently done on collision risk analysis in port waters, little is known about the influential factors of the risk. This paper develops a technique for modelling collision risks in port waterways in order to examine the associations between the risks and the geometric, traffic, and regulatory control characteristics of waterways. A binomial logistic model, which accounts for the correlations in the risks of a particular fairway at different time periods, is derived from traffic conflicts and calibrated for the Singapore port fairways. Results show that the fairways attached to shoreline, traffic intersection and international fairway attribute higher risks, whereas those attached to confined water and local fairway possess lower risks. Higher risks are also found in the fairways featuring higher degree of bend, lower depth of water, higher numbers of cardinal and isolated danger marks, higher density of moving ships and lower operating speed. The risks are also found to be higher at night. © 2011 The Royal Institute of Navigation.
Source Title: Journal of Navigation
ISSN: 03734633
DOI: 10.1017/S0373463311000257
Appears in Collections:Staff Publications

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