Quantitative risk assessment through hybrid causal logic approach

Abstract

In this paper, a hybrid causal logic (HCL) model is improved by mapping a fuzzy fault tree (FFT) into a Bayesian network (BN). The first step is to substitute an FFT for the traditional FT. The FFT is based on the Takagi-Sugeno model and the translation rules needed to convert the FFT into a BN are derived. The proposed model is demonstrated in a study of a fire hazard on an offshore oil production facility. It is clearly shown that the FFT can be directly converted into a BN and that the parameters of the FFT can be estimated more accurately using the basic inference techniques of a BN. The improved HCL approach is able to both accurately determine how failures cause an undesired problem using FFT and also model non-deterministic cause-effect relationships among system elements using the BN. © Author 2011.