Fuzzy logic for evaluating alternative construction technology

Abstract

The construction environment is changeable and full of uncertainties, so each alternative work method for an operation may have optimistic and pessimistic cost estimates, along with corresponding probabilities. The cost variability and thus the risk of a new technology is often even greater, which affects the acceptability of the technology. The expected monetary values of technology alternatives do not reflect a decision maker's preference for potential gains or his or her aversion to likely adversities. Formal decision analysis techniques, such as the one based on utility theory, must be employed to model a decision maker's value system. As an alternative to those traditional techniques, this paper presents a fuzzy-logic-based, risk-incorporating approach to evaluating new construction technology, intended to produce consistent technology implementation decisions. Its concepts and steps are described in detail, followed by an example in which alternative methods for the formwork operation of a high-rise building project are evaluated. Experimental results show that the approach can produce a consistent evaluation of the available options, according to a set of user-defined linguistic rules that state the priorities in a given project scenario.