Contrarian real estate investment in some Asia pacific cities

Abstract

The profitability of contrarian investment strategy (i.e. investing in value stocks) is one of the most well-established empirical facts in the finance literature. It would appear, however, that the strategy has not been extended to real estate. Thus, the paper examines the contrarian investment strategy in relation to real estate so as to ascertain the comparative advantage(s) (in terms of performance) of 'value' and 'growth' property investments. It is found, after a case study of 11 cities in the Asia-Pacific over the period 1994Q2 through 2004Q2, that contrarian real estate investment consistently outperformed growth property investment. The results of stochastic dominance test validate the relative superiority of 'value' over 'growth' property investment. This implies that fund managers who traditionally have been favouring prime (i.e. growth) property investment may have to reconsider their investment strategy if they want to maximize their return.