SUSTAINABILITY OF THE PHYSICAL DEVELOPMENT AND FINANCIAL VIABILITY OF THE INTEGRATED RESORT AT MARINA BAY

Abstract

The structure and behaviour of strategic large real estate development project(s) such as the Integrated Resort at Manna Bay are uniquely moulded by the dynamic interaction among exogenous and endogenous forces such as real estate demand-supply conditions, institutional polices and market structure/attractiveness. By combining a qualitative real estate market analysis (REMA) on Singapore's first and possibly the largest strategic mixed use development, the Integrated Resort (1R) at Marina Bay as well as using quantitative research methods such as the discounted cash flow (DCF) model and the Monte Carlo risk simulation analysis; this study sets forth to determine the sustained viability of the IR. The REMA provided a qualitative analytical framework for in-depth analysis of the direct real estate performance^ and subsequently serves to support the figures in the DCF for closing a potential and large direct real estate development project as well as to evaluate broad impacts of related macroeconomic institutional policies, plans and other intrinsic factors that might influence the direct real estate of interest. These impacts were also empirically revealed in the discounted cash-flow technique, scenario and sensitivity analysis,which explicated their effects on the fundamental risk-return characteristics on the IR as well as critically informing the marketing and risk-management strategies.