Oil price fluctuations and Singapore economy

Abstract

This study finds that the impact of an oil price shock on the Singapore economy is marginal. Both impulse response and variance decomposition analysis provide reasonable grounds to believe that the impact only had an insignificant adverse effect on Singapore's gross domestic product (GDP), inflation and unemployment rates. Further analysis on two oil vulnerability measures supports the finding: The declining trend of oil intensity in Singapore since 1989 and the declining shares of the Singapore's expenditure on oil consumption as a percentage of its nominal GDP. This study identifies, however, that the impact of an oil price shock on the Singapore economy should not be considered negligible even though it is small. © 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.