THE IMPACT OF ANTI-SPECULATION MEASURES: TESTING THE STOCK MARKET

Abstract

The recent Global Financial Crisis has not only shown that neglecting real estate booms can result in dire consequences but also challenged the age old adage that real estate markets provide a good diversification avenue for stock market players. Investors are beginning to discover that low and stable correlations between the two markets are neither necessarily true nor permanent.

In response to the rapidly rising house prices, the government of Singapore is forced to adopt a host of anti-speculation policies. Although theoretically, these macro-prudential policies are designed to target narrow objectives, the effectiveness of such policies is difficult to gauge given their relative infancy and low adoption as compared to traditional monetary/fiscal policies.

This paper attempts to gauge the specificity of such policies through the measurement of unintended downstream effects on the stock markets. It empirically analyses if anti-speculation measures targeted to cool the overheating real estate markets would have any ripple effects on the stock market. Using a large panel data set that covers 404 stocks listed on the Singapore Exchange from 1/1/2008 to 11/27/2013, the study found that anti-speculation measures did indeed have a negative impact on the stock markets across the board. More specifically in the electronics & electrical, household goods & home construction, real estate investment & services, real estate investment trust, technology hardware & equipment and travel & leisure sectors.