STRATEGIC PLANNING OF NATURE-BASED CLIMATE SOLUTIONS IN SINGAPORE: A THEORY OF CHANGE AND OUTCOMES FRAMEWORK

Abstract

The world today faces a looming existential threat of climate disruption. Singapore, a small low-lying island in the tropics, is particularly vulnerable to the adverse and interconnected effects of climate change such as rising sea levels and abnormal weather events. A highly urbanised cityscape means that these climate challenges are further compounded by a growing urban heat island phenomenon, affecting liveability of all people. Nature-based climate solutions (“NCS”) present a significant solution for the world in both climate change mitigation and adaptation. Where deployed effectively, it also provides co-benefits to biodiversity and humanity. Research informs that NCS could provide about a third of cost-effective mitigation necessary from now to 2030, to stabilise global temperature rise to below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels (Griscom et al., 2020). Aside from sequestration, coastal ecosystems such as mangrove communities can also be important natural defences for our shorelines against storm surges. There are many questions which this study seeks to address - How can Singapore strategically mainstream and implement NCS? Who are the stakeholders involved? What must be done? A Theory of Change (“ToC”) approach was thus adopted to articulate the logical flow of outcomes and intervention activities, in a cause-and-effect relationship. Working backwards from one outcome to another, the author seeks to “connect the dots” on the pathways that support desired change and create a “playbook” for sustainable transformation. Beyond the shores of Singapore, many of the themes discussed in this paper can also be generalised and applied to urban centres across the region. All in all, there is a need to enable a shift in values and attitudes towards sustainable development across all stakeholder groups - academia; businesses; community; insurers; investors; lenders; nonprofits; policy-makers; regulators; stock exchanges; and others - which therein not only lies the complexities of this dissertation, but also the value of it, as the breadth of themes explored can be applied to inform the role that all readers can play in contributing to the collective future we want.