SPATIOTEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION AND ITS CARBON EMISSION EFFECT IN CHINA

Abstract

This study calculates national and provincial fixed capital formation by types during the period of 2002-2017 based on the fixed capital formation accounting method published by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, and analyzes temporal evolution and spatial distribution characteristics, the migration path of gravity center and regional contribution rate of fixed capital formation by types. Then, from the perspective of final demand, this study uses the input-output method to measure embodied CO2 emissions in fixed capital formation in China, and analyzes the trends, flow characteristics, and the migration path of gravity center and regional contribution of embodied CO2 emissions in fixed capital formation by types. The decoupling state and driving factors between embodied CO2 emissions and embodied added value in fixed capital formation are also studied. Next, from the perspective of production, the influence mechanism of fixed capital formation on CO2 emissions is analyzed, and the contributions of fixed capital formation and its related factors to the evolution of CO2 emissions are revealed by using the generalized Divisia index decomposition method. Finally, three scenarios are constructed to analyze the evolution trends of China’s CO2 emissions and embodied CO2 emissions in fixed capital formation before 2035 by using Monte Carlo simulation method, and their peaking pathways are explored by using decomposition models.