Incidence of breast cancer attributable to breast density, modifiable and non-modifiable breast cancer risk factors in Singapore

Abstract

Incidence of breast cancer is rising rapidly in Asia. Some breast cancer risk factors are modifiable. We examined the impact of known breast cancer risk factors, including body mass index (BMI), reproductive and hormonal risk factors, and breast density on the incidence of breast cancer, in Singapore. The study population was a population-based prospective trial of screening mammography - Singapore Breast Cancer Screening Project. Population attributable risk and absolute risks of breast cancer due to various risk factors were calculated. Among 28,130 women, 474 women (1.7%) developed breast cancer. The population attributable risk was highest for ethnicity (49.4%) and lowest for family history of breast cancer (3.8%). The proportion of breast cancers that is attributable to modifiable risk factor BMI was 16.2%. The proportion of breast cancers that is attributable to reproductive risk factors were low; 9.2% for age at menarche and 4.2% for number of live births. Up to 45.9% of all breast cancers could be avoided if all women had breast density <12% and BMI <25 kg/m2. Notably, sixty percent of women with the lowest risk based on non-modifiable risk factors will never reach the risk level recommended for mammography screening. A combination of easily assessable breast cancer risk factors can help to identify women at high risk of developing breast cancer for targeted screening. A large number of high-risk women could benefit from risk-reduction and risk stratification strategies. © 2020, The Author(s).