DECODING THE PLAYBOOK: THE PAP IN CRISIS ELECTIONS

Abstract

This thesis seeks to investigate the rather regular occurrence of General Elections in Singapore amidst a climate of crisis. Conventional wisdom posits that such elections will see a groundswell of support for the ruling PAP, producing excellent wins by the party’s standards. However, in the most recent 2020 election which was held amidst a global health pandemic and its associated economic fallout, there was no such groundswell. Instead, the PAP recorded its second-lowest share of the popular vote since Singapore’s independence and lost a second GRC to the WP. Consequently, in accounting for GE2020 deviation from the status quo, it is timely to reassess the conventional wisdom on crisis elections and its electoral consequences for the PAP. This re-examination will broadly cover two areas. First, the conduct of the PAP in crisis elections, from the perspective of political and electoral strategies. Second, the continued relevance of crisis elections moving forward, in light of the realities of Singapore politics today. This thesis first analyses the factors that facilitate the PAP’s proclivity towards having crisis elections. It then fleshes out the PAP’s standard playbook for crisis elections, specifying the typical strategies employed by the party before, during and after such elections. Finally, it examines the continued relevance and effectiveness of the PAP’s crisis election playbook for future elections of this variety. Ultimately, this thesis argues that the PAP’s tendency to hold crisis elections is due to systemic flexibility in the calling for elections, the intrinsicness of survivalism and vulnerability in the PAP’s governing culture, as well as the risk-averse nature of the electorate. Subsequently, while some minor tweaks could be done to the playbook to maximize the PAP’s chances in crisis elections, there are also big quandaries to be confronted if crisis elections are to continue providing electoral boons for the party.