COMPREHENSIVE OR COMPETITIVE?: THE EFFECTS OF THE RCEP AND CPTPP ON INTRA-ASEAN TRADE PATTERNS

Abstract

Mega-Free Trade Agreements (mega-FTAs) like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) have been gaining prominence in Asia-Pacific. The RCEP involves all 10 Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member states and is core to maintaining ASEAN centrality. At the same time, the CPTPP brings together key members of the Asia-Pacific along with four ASEAN members - Brunei, Vietnam, Malaysia and Singapore. The competitive arrangements of these two mega-FTAs and the divergent positions of ASEAN member states make it important to answer the question: How do the RCEP and CPTPP affect intra-regional trade patterns in ASEAN? To address this issue, this paper estimates the effect of joint participation in mega-FTA negotiations on trade indicators using panel data on regional integration across ASEAN member states over time. Thereafter, network analysis of members involved in the negotiations of the two mega-FTAs is conducted to identify the importance of certain members in affecting trade patterns. This thesis argues that ASEAN countries with joint participation in negotiations of both mega-FTAs are more influential in affecting intra-regional trade patterns as they balance the external and internal dynamics of the region and facilitate international linkages for ASEAN as a cohesive trading bloc. On the other hand, ASEAN member states who are only involved in the RCEP negotiations provide intra-regional stability by consolidating trade agreements and economic linkages. The findings of this paper would be useful in understanding the emerging patterns across mega-FTAs as well as the motivations of participating states. Overall, this thesis contributes to the literature on trade regionalism and economic integration while offering insights on the potential synergies between the RCEP and CPTPP.