IN THE DRAGON'S ORBIT: EXAMINING TRENDS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA'S RELATIONSHIP WITH CHINA

Abstract

How have the alignments of Southeast Asian states to China changed, and why? Recent trends in the foreign policies of Southeast Asian states appear perplexing at first. States which have traditionally been cautious about cultivating closer ties with China have aligned much closer to it, while other states which have traditionally cultivated close ties with China have attempted to reduce the scale of their alignment. I address this issue in my thesis. I begin by reviewing the literature on inter-state alignment, highlighting in particular how existing studies of alignment have over-emphasized the paradigm of international security and failed to contextualise inter-state alignment to Southeast Asian geopolitics. I then address these shortcomings by offering an integrative theory of alignment, disaggregating the motivations and evidence of alignment into three broad aspects: political, economic, and security. I then test this theory on patterns of alignment in Southeast Asia, across states which have aligned closer to China, aligned further away from it, and states whose alignment remains unchanged. My thesis finds evidence that changes in alignment have been caused by changes in the degree of political support a state's government expects to receive. That is, changes in the degree of diplomatic and domestic support received by the government are likely to lead to change in inter-state alignment. In contrast, my thesis finds limited evidence to support the hypotheses that changes in alignment are attributable to changes in expectations of economic or security support. These findings are pertinent for scholars and policymakers engaging with Southeast Asian geopolitics, or grappling with the implications of intensified great-power competition across different regions.