"ALLIES" ASSEMBLE - EXPLAINING THE IMPACT OF STATE ALLIANCES ON THE SHIFT IN CONCEPTION OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS AFTER THE 2010 NPT CONFERENCE

Abstract

From 2010 onwards, there has been a fundamental shift that occurred within the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). Non-nuclear weapons states (NNWS) have rallied together to overhaul the longstanding and deeply entrenched conception of nuclear weapons being strategic assets that states should grasp on to for security. The Humanitarian Initiative (HI) was launched by leading NNWS states to redivert attention towards the lethal humanitarian consequences of nuclear weapons to push forth progress in nuclear disarmament, in light of a stalemate between the NNWS and the nuclear-weapon states (NWS). There has been a surge in literature on the phenomenon observed, but none really exploring the direct cause of change. Therefore, this thesis aims to address the question of why the shift in conception of nuclear weapons, initiated by the NNWS of the HI, occurred after the 2010 period. This thesis argues that albeit various state motivations and frustrations against the NWS that contributed to the NNWS’ intentions to initiate change within the NPT, they would only act upon such intentions when they are able to identify a strategic alliance that can be mobilized. Through recent interactions with other like-minded NNWS, the leading states would be able ascertain an alignment in foreign policy outlook, that of advocating for the humanitarian approach, and hence be motivated to mobilize this potential alliance to effect change in the NPT. The case studies of Norway, Mexico and Austria, the key leading states of the HI, will be examined to support the argument of the role that alliances play in incentivizing states to initiate change within this multilateral institution.