BELOW-REPLACEMENT FERTILITY IN SINGAPORE CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES

Abstract

Why is it that while the advanced countries are failing to replace themselves, the rest of the world continues to reproduce at a prodigious rate? What are the factors that have caused this resulting hiatus in population growth? And what economic and social backlashes will this bring about? Impressed by the profundity and yet slight public awareness of such questions, this academic paper is written primarily to assess the causes and consequences of the trend of below-replacement fertility, specifically in Singapore. It may seem audacious to try to determine the causes and consequences of the recent scarcity of births in Singapore. Not only is the scarcity new and complex in its origins but its ultimate duration and many of its consequences lie in the future, a time that is clouded with uncertainties. However, audacious or not, the task cannot be evaded. Like any other major change, the prolonged fertility decline in Singapore raises questions that need to be answered, no matter how difficult. The phenomenon has to be analyzed and explained. It has to be "understood". This dissertation starts with a review of demo!,>raphic trends, considering in some detail fertility, mortality and migration trends in Singapore since the 1970s. Generally, indicators of trends in fertility have highlighted a real decline in fertility. The total fertility rate in Singapore has stabilized at about 1.8 births per woman which is under the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman.

The second chapter describes formal economic reasoning in terms of which an interpretation of the determinants of declining fertility might be found. The Microeconomic Household Theory of Fertility provides a useful platform for a discussion of the roles played by household income and the price of children relative to other goods. Schultz's work on the opportunity cost of women's time spent in childbearing and Becker's quantity-versus-quality theme are highlighted as they have significant relevance in explaining the trend of below-replacement fertility in Singapore. Besides, the price of using contraception and relative income are also creditable determinants in accounting for this phenomenon. Next, the paper proceeds to analyze the causes of below-replacement fertility in Singapore. The tendency to postpone marriage, the increase in divorce rates and the rising trend of female labour force participation rate are features of our society which tend to reduce fertility. Moreover, the government population social policies along with urbanization and urbanization have brought about a positive desire for family planning and smaller families and these factors do have a chilling effect on fertility. In the fifth chapter, the major consequences of continued below-replacement fertility, including the impact on the age structure, economic growth and social front, are dealt with. A major concern is that an ageing population will exacerbate the already-acute workforce shortages in Singapore. Moreover, below-replacement fertility may be expected to have adverse effects on innovation and investment and a significant impact on consumer demand and family structure and behaviour. Lastly, a summary of the preceding discussion is presented in the concluding chapter. It should be noted that by its very nature and persistence, we believe that below-replacement fertility is a profound development in Singapore (and in industrial societies) and that, as such, it needs more attention than it has received. This academic paper, it is hoped, will increase that attention.