MEASURING BUSINESS ACTIVITY IN SINGAPORE THROUGH ECONOMIC INDICATORS, 1949-1965

Abstract

The study is an attempt to organize and to interpret statistical and historical materials relating to the economic position of Singapore in the postwar years, 1949-1965. The aim is analytic description based upon changes apparent in timeseries covering major aspects of the economy, namely, foreign trade, manufacturing, construction, government, and financial and labour conditions. The first part of the study provides an economic history of Singapore written from the perspective of business fluctuations. The descriptive analysis is given in three chapters, each covering roughly one cycle. Here a cumulative narrative describes each cycle, tracing successively the impulses to expansion(or contraction) derived from foreign trade and domestic investment chiefly in manufacturing and construction as well as government investment expenditure; the effect of expansion (or contraction) on the financial structure and the resultant position of labour. The section supplies, within the limits of the data available, an historial explanation of the short-period movements in the economy. Chapter V, embodying the main contributions of the study, presents the results of statistical analysis of representative sectoral time-series. The analysis is based upon a simplified technique developed by the National Bureau of Economic Research -- the object, to select 'reference dates’ identifying the years of peaks and troughs in economic fluctuations. An equally important contribution is the Business Activity Index with Main Sector Indexes for Foreign Trade, Manufacturing, Construction, Government and the Residual Sector, which provide summary measures of business activity. The periods of successive expansions and contractions in the economy thus delimited, together with the Business Activity Index, supply an historial record, hitherto not available, on economic conditions in Singapore in the postwar years. The study ends with a review of individual series representing major sectors of the economy with a view to determining their usefulness as indicators of change in business activity.