NEW LABOUR FORCE PROJECTIONS FOR SINGAPORE

Abstract

Population and labour force projections are vital tools in the study of population dynamics and implications. They are also utilised by policy makers in the formulation of socio-economic policies. Previous works on labour force projections held the labour force participation rates constant throughout the projection period. Unfortunately, this does not give a good picture of the future. In this exercise, a new method is introduced to bring us one step closer to a more accurate picture of the future labour force. Chapter 1 introduces the rationale for new labour force projections and the possible combinations of scenarios. The sources of data on which this research is based on, are also discussed. In Chapter 2, the methodologies commonly used for population projections are discussed. Mathematical methods are used for the extrapolation of the labour force participation rates for the projection period. In addition, the PEOPLE and WORKERS software are introduced, as they are to be used for the population and labour force projections respectively. Chapter 3 provides a detailed analysis of each the age-sex specific labour force participation rates and presents the resulting extrapolated labour force participation rates. The population projections based on three assumptions on mortality and fertility are presented in Chapter 4. Six labour force projection scenarios are presented in Chapter 5. The scenarios are primarily based on two sets of assumptions of labour force participation rates. Finally, some of the implications of these six labour force scenarios are discussed in Chapter 6. Further, the demographic dependency ratios in terms of young and old dependency are worked out for the 6 scenarios during 1990-2030. For the first time, the economic dependency ratio is also computed and presented.