Age of Retirement and Human Capital in an Aging China, 2015–2050

Abstract

As China continues to age rapidly, whether the country should adjust the official retirement age, and if so, when and how, are currently major policy concerns. We examine the impact of postponing the retirement age on the human capital of China in the next four decades. Two critical aspects of human capital—health and education—are incorporated to account for the quality of the work force. Our projections reveal the impact of nine scenarios on the Chinese labor force in the next few decades, highlighting the changes in “the high human capital workforce”—those with good health and education. We show substantial impact with added work force ranging from 28 to 92 million per year depending on which scenarios are implemented. Furthermore, the retained workers are increasingly better educated. The gain in female workers is particularly significant, reaping the benefits of the education expansion since the 1990s. © 2018, The Author(s).