THE ECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF FERTILITY IN SINGAPORE

Abstract

The Singapore government has been complimented on the success of the anti-natalist policy in reducing the fertility rate in the 1960s. However, the pro-natalist policy was far from successful after the government decided to reverse the anti-natalist policy in the 1980s. Though much has been done to raise the fertility level, the total fertility rate continues to fall below the replacement level. The objective of this academic exercise attempts to study the economic determinants of fertility in Singapore. Hence, chapter one begins with the historical perspective of the population policy and it highlights the adverse implications of persistence below-replacement fertility for the Singapore economy. Chapter two provides the theoretical frame of reference via the discussion of some economic theories of fertility. It introduces factors such as income, infant mortality rate, female education, family planning programme and female labor force participation rate to explain the variation in the total fertility rate. Each of these factors is then being discussed in greater details in the Singapore context in chapter three. Chapter four presents the empirical results obtained from the regression model. The results would enable a prediction of the response of the fertility rate, given a change in any of the variables. It is showed that the female education level, family planning programme and female labor force participation rate are inversely related to the total fertility rate. These results seem to offer a satisfactory explanation for the failure of the pro-natalist policy. This is because the government has been vigorous in providing equal educational opportunity to women and encouraging women to participate in the work force. And this has indirectly affected decision to conceive. With this problem in mind, we reserve the discussion of the policy implication to the last chapter.