SINGAPORE'S FERTILITY TRANSITION : PRONATALISM AND POPULATION THEORIES

Abstract

The pro-natalist phase started in 1980. Specifically, the new population policy, which aims to increase the total fertility rate, has just passed its ten years anniversary since it was first promulgated in 1987. This academic exercise seeks to measure the effectiveness of pro-natal policies with regard to birth orders using demographic techniques and econometric methods. Marriage is often perceived as the most important intervening variable in affecting fertility. As such, the marriage market will be examined before discussing fertility. In addition, this thesis also investigates the relationship between income elasticity and birth parities. It is found that the marriage market is favourable to the single females. As such, the marriage patterns in Singapore characterised by late first marriage timing and low prevalence of first marriage must be attributed to some socio-economic variables. It is also discovered that pronatalism has been of limited effects and that income elasticity becomes increasingly negative across birth parities. Essentially, this study cautions the need for a greater concern over the issue of marriage prevalence. Equally important is the need for better childcare arrangements and some fine-tuning of existing pro-natal policies in order to improve the reproductive performance of the population. The study further concludes that a greater disparity between the demand for and (potential) supply of children seem to have prevailed in Singapore.