BUTLER'S TOURIST AREA LIFE CYCLE OF EVOLUTION : CASE STUDY OF SINGAPORE

Abstract

The notion of a tourism life cycle is not new. It is an indisputable fact that tourist areas evolve and change over time. Proponents of this idea include Christaller (1963) who was the first to recognise a typical pattern of life cycle in the Mediterranean. In 1976, Noronha proposed a three stage cycle of development beginning with the discovery of the place followed by democratization and finally abandonment of the place by tourists. R.W. Butler (1980) formalized the idea and hypothesized that tourist destination areas follow a Product Life Cycle with visitor arrivals going through a cyclical phase of growth and decline. According to Butler's proposed model, the tourist area first begins with the exploration stage, characterized by small numbers of tourists. As more tourists set foot, the area enters its involvement stage with the locals providing basic tourist facilities. The area's accessibility is improved through the provision of basic infrastructure. As the area develops, more facilities are provided, and more tourists arrive. These tourists represents Cohen's (1972) institutionalized tourists, or the "mass tourists" phenomenon. Consolidation of the area brings about a well-established image, with the tourist growth rate increasing but at a decreasing rate. Eventually, stagnation sets in and action by the entrepreneur or the policy makers will determine whether the area is destined for decline or rejuvenation. A study of this cycle is undertaken with regard to Singapore. Although the life cycle theory has been formulated in absolute terms, namely in terms of total number of visitors; this study recognizes the weaknesses of the cycle and have incorporated several improvements into the cycle. Hence, indicators other than the tourist numbers are introduced and evaluated at the same time. The study considers the external influences brought about by the macro environment such as the economic and political considerations, the technological environment and the ecological environment, and at the same time examines the local tourism sphere. The physical aspects of the tourist industry such as the develop!11ent of accommodation, emergence of auxiliary services and infrastructural development are analyzed together with the number of tourist arrivals to gain a holistic view of the developmental process. Patterns of development such as the emergence of a well-established tourist belt and deviations of the case study from the model are also highlighted as well. This will ensure a more in-depth understanding of the area's developmental process. The cycle underscores the evolutionary processes in accordance with phases of development and highlights the fact that all tourist areas will inevitably suffer a decline. Hence, tourism development and its ramifications on the society should not be taken lightly by the planners. The cycle is excellent as an explanatory tool to account for developmental processes and becomes more attractive when all the elements of the tourism industry are integrated and utilised in the analysis and henceforth offers some powerful insights to the long-term tourism development in Singapore.