THE PROSPECTS FOR A BABY BOOM IN SINGAPORE

Abstract

In the early 1960s, Singapore has been concerned with the consequences of a high rate of population growth. In the mid 1980s, the stand of the government is markedly different, the government is now worried about the effects of too little and potentially negative population growth on Singapore's future economic growth. It is thus of interest to ask ourselves the following question, "Given Singapore's social, economic and political spectrum, can we then expect the pronatalist policies as advocated by the government to be effective in its goal of raising fertility rates?" The answer to this question is the crucial concern of this Academic Exercise. Before attempting to measure the effectiveness or non­effectiveness of our pronatalist policies, we need to identify the determinants of fertility in Singapore. To do this, we shall operationalise the Butz and Ward Model and The Pennsylvannia Model in Singapore. The Butz and Ward Model is a model derived from the "New Home Economics". This model has demonstrated that both men's and women's current wages operate independently in explaining the fertility movements in the United States. Empirical results show that the U.S. baby boom in the 1950s can be explained as a response to rising male income, whereas the baby bust of the 1960s is due to rising female income. The Pennsylvannia Model on the other hand has also been successful in explaining the fertility swings in the United States albeit in a different manner from the Butz and Ward Model. This model postulates that a family's economic status relative to its. aspirations (relative income) is an essential determinant of fertility. It is shown in this Academic Exercise that the data culled from Singapore's official publications is consistent with and supportive of The Butz and Ward Model. The Pennsylvannla Model however receives inconsistent and weak empirical support. Statistical analysis of the above two models indicates that female labour force participation, education of females and household income are significant determinants of fertility, whereas relative income and the Chinese belief in zodiac signs are not. The conclusion then is that the pronatal policies which emphasize on financial gains are appropriate and will probably lead to an increase in fertility in the coming years.