THE REFUGEE CRISIS PARADOX: EXPLAINING POLICY RESPONSES IN SOUTHEAST ASIA AND EUROPE

Abstract

The Syrian refugee crisis has generated divergent policy responses by European countries since 2015, manifested in the gridlock over proposed migrant relocation schemes and rejection by some countries to temporarily accommodate refugees fleeing violent civil wars in the Middle East and North Africa. Conversely, the Rohingya refugee crisis originating in Myanmar has led to considerable convergence in policy responses among neighboring Southeast Asian countries, which have allowed temporary accommodation, work permits, and third-country resettlement and repatriation facilitated by international organizations. This phenomenon is puzzling given the high level of institutionalization of asylum policies in Europe and the almost lack thereof in Southeast Asia. This paper investigates this paradox by employing process-tracing tests on Germany, Hungary, Malaysia and Thailand to understand the motivations influencing decisions made by political leaders when faced with refugee crises. This paper argues that when faced with a refugee crisis, the interest of political leaders in preserving the strength of their incumbent governing coalitions determines the foreign policy responses of receiving countries towards refugees. Empirical findings from the case studies illustrate that when confronted with the influx of refugees, political leaders will seek to secure the support of key political and business allies, as well as coopt opposition and civil society preferences that surface, in order to prevent the exploitation of the refugee issue by other parties. The resultant alignment of policy responses helps to safeguard the legitimacy and electoral prospects of the ruling regimes. This paper aims to shed new light on the dynamics of domestic governing coalitions and fill the literature gap in comparative regional studies on migration.