THE CONTEMPORARY DEBATE OVER PROGRESS: SHADES OF GRAY OR SOMETHING PINKER?

Abstract

The title of this thesis alludes to the arguments on progress put forth by John Gray and Steven Pinker. Pinker has become famous for his proclamations that our contemporary era is the most prosperous, peaceful and emancipatory in human history. Gray has directly challenged Pinker’s arguments and instead contended that whatever progress human civilisation has made is extremely fragile, and that we are actually living in the most violence-riddled, existentially threatening era in human history. This thesis analyses the arguments of Gray and Pinker as well as those of several other major thinkers who have addressed the question of progress including Jared Diamond, Ronald Wright, and Julian Savulescu, and attempts to decide which of them has the most convincing case. The assessment of progress is measured using six different factors: war, poverty, democracy, technology, emancipation, and globalisation. It concludes that the empirical evidence of these six factors agrees more with the pessimists than the optimists. The perils of humanity’s bias towards short-term thinking may mean that the gains we have accrued in raising living standards and achieving humanitarian gains may soon be lost to the increasingly severe existential threats of climate instability and resource depletion.