THE PROMISE OF PRUDENCE: DELIBERATIVE DECISION-MAKING IN AN UNCERTAIN WORLD

Abstract

This study revisits the value of prudence in statecraft by drawing upon International Relations theory and the political theories of Aristotle, Machiavelli, and Hobbes. A thick conceptualization of prudence is developed, which allows distilling a set of prescriptions for guiding decision-making under uncertainty, a process that I name the ‘Prudent Judgment Approach’ (PJA). A comparative analysis of three US decisions establishes the value of this approach: the Marshall Plan (1947), the Cuban Missile Crisis (1962), and the invasion of Cambodia (1970). The case studies are executed using a mixed methods research design comprising inductive discourse analysis of archival documents to generate quantitative data, which then informs congruence analysis and process tracing. This research breaks new ground by conceiving a more productive understanding of prudence, distinguishing it from rational choice, formulating a new approach for decision-making under uncertainty, and developing a replicable method for systematically evaluating decision-making processes.