RISE AND SHINE: AN EVALUATION OF SINGAPORE'S FREE PRE-PEAK TRAVEL PROGRAMME

Abstract

This study estimates the effect of Singapore’s Free Pre-Peak Travel programme (FPPT) on the travel behaviour of regular morning peak rail commuters after it was introduced on 24th June 2013. Using a dataset that runs from June to August 2013, I use three empirical strategies – regression discontinuity, synthetic control, and difference-in-differences – to investigate the shift in commuter exit times. I find a 6 to 7 percentage point increase in the proportion of commuters ending their journeys before 7.45a.m. after the introduction of the programme. This shift is most evident in commuters who were previously travelling in the earlier part of the morning peak. Results also suggest that commuters respond more strongly to free travel as compared to smaller discounts. The results of this paper are significant and consistent across all three empirical strategies.