Evaluation of the Economic and Commercial Potential of Thin Film and Crystalline Silicon Photovoltaics

Abstract

Investing in the photovoltaic (PV) industry requires technical and industry knowledge to holistically analyze the potential of PV companies and the technology they employ. In the high tech industry, to appreciate business value movements would require some level of understanding in technology down to device structures. The practical aim of this work is to provide a comprehensive checklist for company background research and due diligence process. The research starts with a survey of historical and current trends relevant to the PV industry as a whole, followed by in-depth evaluation of Crystalline silicon (c-Si) and thin film PV. For each technology, a value chain analysis is presented followed by examination of factors affecting future cost reduction. In addition, a case study based on on-site company study is carried out for each technology. Next, a global survey for key growth areas in the past decade is done to sieve out the key enablers for the industry. This leads to the review of regional initiatives that could affect competitiveness and future growth. The impact of the recent credit crunch and market scenarios suggested by analysts in the industry is factored into the analysis. Finally, recommendations are made via a proposed ordinal ranking method.