FUTURE IMPLICATIONS OF THE SINGAPORE POPULATION : 1990-2050

Abstract

Projections, in particular demographic projections, are vital tools in the study of population dynamics and implications. They are also essential instruments utilised by policy makers in the formulation of population policies. In a plural society like Singapore, population projections by ethnic groups are imperative considerations; unfortunately, apart from projections by official bodies, there have been ·few ethnic based projections within the last two decades. It is the objective of this academic paper to generate new population projections for Singapore, based on both total and ethnic populations, and to analyse the implications they hold for the future. Chapter I introduces the subject of demographic projections. The difference between the terms "projections" and "forecasts" is explained; and this is followed by a section on the significance of projections in social planning and policies. A review of past demographic projections on the Singapore population is also included to highlight the need for constant revision of old estimates and construction of new projections. Various common methodologies of population projection are presented in Chapter II. Techniques mentioned include the Logistic Curves, the Component Method, and the Key Fitz Operator. All good demographic projections require realistic assumptions about the three basic demographic components, viz, mortality, fertility and migration. Chapter III provides a basis for making these assumptions through a review on the past trends of the individual components from 1970 to 1989. Indicators such as the crude death rate, infant mortality rate, age-specific death rate and life expectancy at birth are used to examine the mortality conditions in Singapore for the 20-year period. Fertility trends are similarly examined through measures like crude birth rate, age specific fertility rate, age-specific marital fertility rate, total fertility rate and gross fertility rate. Due to the lack of data, migration trends are reviewed through issues on migration and the government's immigration policies pertinent to the last twenty years. Assumptions about the demographic components based on their past trends are drawn up and presented in Chapter IV. New sets of population projections are also constructed for the period 1995 to 2050. The newly projected estimates will be used in Chapter V to analyse the demographic implications of these projections over the next sixty years. Areas highlighted are the future ethnic and total population growth, future dependency ratio and ethnic composition, future school population and enrolment, and future labour force. Chapter VI concludes with an exercise examining the possible migrational effects the potential influx of immigrants from Hong Kong may have on Singapore's demographic structure