UNDERSTANDING AQUACULTURE-DRIVEN MANGROVE DEFORESTATION IN THE MAHAKAM DELTA, KALIMANTAN: A SYSTEM DYNAMICS PERSPECTIVE

Abstract

Mangroves are highly productive coastal ecosystems that provide a variety of ecosystem services to human communities. However, mangroves are threatened by unsustainable economic activities, especially in Southeast Asia where they are richest. Mangrove deforestation driven by shrimp aquaculture epitomizes such processes, rapid shrimp pond development over-exploits mangrove ecosystem, causing environmental degradation and business breakdown. This study investigates into the structural causes behind mangrove deforestation driven by shrimp aquaculture in the Mahakam delta, Kalimantan, Indonesia, from a dynamic systemic perspective. A System Dynamics simulation model was developed, which enabled simulation that successfully reproduced the historical deforestation behavior in the delta. An investigation into the dynamic behavior in model mechanism has revealed that, lack of regulation that resulted from political decentralization in Indonesia, along with the patron-client social relationship, were the underlying causes behind persistent reforestation. A projection by the model showed potentially oscillations in mangrove deforestation in the future, which might be further complicated by increased land use conflicts between stakeholders. Two policy solutions were also formulated, integrated into base model and simulated, showing mixed results. Strong commitments, good policy design and cooperation would be the key factors in determining mangrove conservation success. This study is a novel attempt in understanding the origins of mangrove deforestation in Southeast Asia. Structural patterns of processes leading to deforestation were elucidated, which will facilitate the identification of similar cases. The model also offers academics, conservation practitioners and policy makers a virtual lab for policy simulation, contributing to the improvement of understanding and problem-solving capabilities of stakeholders.