Trading Places?: The Leading Goose and Ascending Dragon

Abstract

Contrary to the stereotypical view that Japanese foreign policy is generally passive, reactive, & driven primarily by economics, the reality is that Tokyo has sought to exercise diplomatic initiatives in Southeast Asia over the past 25 years. Ironically, Japan plays a larger political role in Southeast Asia than in its more immediate Northeast Asian neighborhood. Two trends might limit Japan's ability to raise its profile in Southeast Asia. First, Japan, the region's "leading goose" during the 1970s & 1980s, has suffered more than a decade of economic stagnation. Second, the PRC is an "ascending dragon," which will underpin greater Chinese economic & political influence in Southeast Asia. Unless & until Japan seriously embarks on structural reforms, the nation will lack the resources & prestige to support a more ambitious foreign policy toward Southeast Asia.