Verification of a model for the detection of intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) by receiver operating characteristics (ROC)

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to verify by Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) a mathematical model supporting the hypothesis that IUGR can be diagnosed by estimating growth velocity. The ROC compare computerized simulation results with clinical data from 325 pregnant British women. Each patient had 6 consecutive ultrasound examinations for fetal abdominal circumference (fac). Customized and un-customized fetal weights were calculated according to Hadlock's formula. IUGR was diagnosed by the clinical standard, i.e. estimated weight below the tenth percentile. Growth velocity was estimated by calculating the changes of fac (Dz fac /dt) at various time intervals from 3 to 10 weeks. Finally, ROC was used to compare the methods. At 3-4 weeks scan interval, the area under the ROC curve is 0.68 for customized data and 0.66 for the uncustomized data with 95% confidence interval. Comparison between simulation data and real pregnancies verified that the model is clinically acceptable.