Assessment of future stream flow over the sesan catchment of the lower mekong basin in vietnam

Abstract

This study used a regional climate model, driven at a resolution of 30km, to derive climate estimates that were used as input to a hydrological model to determine stream flow in a changing climate. This regional climate model output was derived using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, which was used to downscale the general circulation model ECHAM5 T63 under the A2 greenhouse gas emission scenario for the future. Two river basins, Dakbla and Poko, over the Sesan catchment of the Lower Mekong region were considered for runoff modeling. A 10-year climatology of the recent past, 1991-2000, was used as the baseline for the present-day climate, and another 10-year climate over the period 2091-2100 was chosen for the future time slice. The results from the simulation of future stream flow indicate that, over both Dakbla and Poko river basins, the stream flow is likely to increase, especially during the peak rainfall season. The Dakbla River Basin shows a substantial increase in stream flow when compared with the Poko River Basin. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.