Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://doi.org/10.1093/molbev/msp285
DC FieldValue
dc.titleEpidemic dynamics revealed in dengue evolution
dc.contributor.authorBennett, S.N.
dc.contributor.authorDrummond, A.J.
dc.contributor.authorKapan, D.D.
dc.contributor.authorSuchard, M.A.
dc.contributor.authorMunoz-Jordán, J.L.
dc.contributor.authorPybus, O.G.
dc.contributor.authorHolmes, E.C.
dc.contributor.authorGubler, D.J.
dc.date.accessioned2014-11-26T08:28:05Z
dc.date.available2014-11-26T08:28:05Z
dc.date.issued2010-04
dc.identifier.citationBennett, S.N., Drummond, A.J., Kapan, D.D., Suchard, M.A., Munoz-Jordán, J.L., Pybus, O.G., Holmes, E.C., Gubler, D.J. (2010-04). Epidemic dynamics revealed in dengue evolution. Molecular Biology and Evolution 27 (4) : 811-818. ScholarBank@NUS Repository. https://doi.org/10.1093/molbev/msp285
dc.identifier.issn07374038
dc.identifier.urihttp://scholarbank.nus.edu.sg/handle/10635/110059
dc.description.abstractDengue is an emerging tropical disease infecting tens of millions of people annually. A febrile illness with potentially severe hemorrhagic manifestations, dengue is caused by mosquito-borne viruses (DENV-1 to -4) that are maintained in endemic transmission in large urban centers of the tropics with periodic epidemic cycles at 3- to 5-year intervals. Puerto Rico (PR), a major population center in the Caribbean, has experienced increasingly severe epidemics since multiple dengue serotypes were introduced beginning in the late 1970s. We document the phylodynamics of DENV-4 between 1981 and 1998, a period of dramatic ecological expansion during which evolutionary change also occurs. The timescale of viral evolution is sufficiently short that viral transmission dynamics can be elucidated from genetic diversity data. Specifically, by combining virus sequence data with confirmed case counts in PR over these two decades, we show that the pattern of cyclic epidemics is strongly correlated with coalescent estimates of effective population size that have been estimated from sampled virus sequences using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Thus, we show that the observed epidemiologic dynamics are correlated with similar fluctuations in diversity, including severe interepidemic reductions in genetic diversity compatible with population bottlenecks that may greatly impact DENV evolutionary dynamics. Mean effective population sizes based on genetic data appear to increase prior to isolation counts, suggesting a potential bias in the latter and justifying more active surveillance of DENV activity. Our analysis explicitly integrates epidemiologic and sequence data in a joint model that could be used to further explore transmission models of infectious disease. © The Author 2009.
dc.sourceScopus
dc.subjectAdaptive evolution
dc.subjectDengue
dc.subjectEpidemics
dc.subjectPhylodynamics
dc.subjectPopulation bottlenecks
dc.subjectVirus
dc.typeArticle
dc.contributor.departmentDUKE-NUS GRADUATE MEDICAL SCHOOL S'PORE
dc.description.doi10.1093/molbev/msp285
dc.description.sourcetitleMolecular Biology and Evolution
dc.description.volume27
dc.description.issue4
dc.description.page811-818
dc.description.codenMBEVE
dc.identifier.isiut000276639800008
Appears in Collections:Staff Publications

Show simple item record
Files in This Item:
There are no files associated with this item.

SCOPUSTM   
Citations

80
checked on Jan 19, 2021

WEB OF SCIENCETM
Citations

81
checked on Jan 19, 2021

Page view(s)

59
checked on Jan 17, 2021

Google ScholarTM

Check

Altmetric


Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.