Life-cycle financial modelling of long term infrastructure projects "PPP-BOT projects" under uncertainty and risk

Abstract

Economic modelling and risk analysis are important tools in the appraisal of long term infrastructure and revenue-generating PPP-BOT projects. Analysis of a project is usually performed by considering a number of different scenarios and risk assumptions. The paper will attempt to develop a generalized model for analyzing life cycle financial modelling of PPP-BOT projects, which will provide the much required level of detail. In addition to sensitivity analysis of various risks at any specific time of the project, the proposed model is expected to provide their suitable management and control mechanisms. Various performance measures thus formulated, will together build the general economic model for PPP-BOT projects. Dealing with uncertainty and risk will be addressed by using decision making under uncertainty and risk methods via a case study.