Design flexibility in complex engineering systems under multiple uncertainties

Abstract

Substantial efforts from a wide range of disciplines have been devoted to develop various flexibility designs, yet the issue of how to design flexibility in complex engineering systems under multiple uncertainties remains a challenging problem. This thesis aims to develop a systematic decision framework to design flexibility ?in? complex engineering systems under multiple sources of uncertainty. In the stage of flexibility identification, an eight-step design process is proposed to explicitly screen system architecture for locating the promising system components for design flexibility in engineering systems. The proposed methodology integrates methods and techniques in multi-attribute utility analysis, Design Structure Matrix, and change propagation analysis. A practically implementable and theoretically consistent valuation approach is provided at the second stage to assess the value of the embedded options with the objective of selecting the best combinations of real options and determining the optimal timing to exercise the real options.