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Title: Quantitative risk assessment through hybrid causal logic approach
Authors: Wang, Y.-F.
Xie, M. 
Habibullah, M.S.
Ng, K.-M. 
Keywords: Bayesian network
Fuzzy fault tree
Hybrid causal logic
Issue Date: Sep-2011
Source: Wang, Y.-F., Xie, M., Habibullah, M.S., Ng, K.-M. (2011-09). Quantitative risk assessment through hybrid causal logic approach. Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability 225 (3) : 323-332. ScholarBank@NUS Repository.
Abstract: In this paper, a hybrid causal logic (HCL) model is improved by mapping a fuzzy fault tree (FFT) into a Bayesian network (BN). The first step is to substitute an FFT for the traditional FT. The FFT is based on the Takagi-Sugeno model and the translation rules needed to convert the FFT into a BN are derived. The proposed model is demonstrated in a study of a fire hazard on an offshore oil production facility. It is clearly shown that the FFT can be directly converted into a BN and that the parameters of the FFT can be estimated more accurately using the basic inference techniques of a BN. The improved HCL approach is able to both accurately determine how failures cause an undesired problem using FFT and also model non-deterministic cause-effect relationships among system elements using the BN. © Author 2011.
Source Title: Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability
ISSN: 1748006X
DOI: 10.1177/1748006X10397370
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