Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.buildenv.2004.07.012
Title: The dynamic effects of the Asian financial crisis on construction demand and tender price levels in Singapore
Authors: Goh, B.H. 
Keywords: ARIMA
Asian financial crisis
Construction demand
Intervention analysis
Tender price index
Issue Date: 2005
Source: Goh, B.H. (2005). The dynamic effects of the Asian financial crisis on construction demand and tender price levels in Singapore. Building and Environment 40 (2) : 267-276. ScholarBank@NUS Repository. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.buildenv.2004.07.012
Abstract: The paper aims to demonstrate the usefulness of applying a sophisticated technique to examine, by measuring, the dynamic effects of an external shock on the construction industry via two macro-level indicators. The time series for 'value of contracts awarded' (or contractor's new orders), a proxy for demand for construction, and the 'tender price index' are used for the analysis, with the Asian financial crisis as the intervention event. The methodology comprises five main stages to produce appropriate ARIMA models that describe the characteristic of the underlying process. The main advantage of the intervention analysis, as noted, is that the estimates of the effect are based on the entire series for 'value of contracts awarded' or 'tender price index', and not on a simple comparison of a few quarters' data. © 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Source Title: Building and Environment
URI: http://scholarbank.nus.edu.sg/handle/10635/45854
ISSN: 03601323
DOI: 10.1016/j.buildenv.2004.07.012
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